There is a New Normal
More than six weeks has passed since we hugged a friend, went to class, hit the gym, or dined out. A deeper awareness of infections and their risks has been imprinted onto our lives. This awareness is not a mere choice for the motivated, instead an inherent instinct from within all of us.
Through individual and group behaviors, and despite opportunistic politics, we have shown our human understanding of this clear and present threat. Health matters and motivates each of us, and collective health is just as important to our communities. This health preservation energy pushes us to adapt, respond, and live on. Survival is a human bond we all have across countries and cultures in times of peril.
Why It’s Important to Understand Risk
Paramount here, on any level—person, neighborhood, county, community, state, or country—is that there must be a fundamental understanding of risk. It’s critical that we study the impact of our behaviors to reduce that risk and then learn—rapidly and iteratively—how our actions impact outcomes. This learning cycle is unforgiving and upon the vulnerable, the aged, and the infirm, there are not second chances. We cannot ignore the high-risk populations where glaring socio-clinical factors potentiate even greater negative outcomes.
We survive and thrive by understanding risk, at the individual and the population level. Through strategies to reduce viral exposure and disciplined social distancing, we have shown that our individual and community health literacy towards viral threats has improved significantly. Individuals, communities, states and countries have seen the positive short-term outcomes of these efforts. The long-term strategies are unwritten. Yet, what is undeniable is that because our risk understanding has evolved, so must our future response.
How We Can Use This Knowledge to Fight the Flu
Another scattered surge of COVID-19 cases will occur in new “hot spots” as the virus methodically makes its way across the country. These late first peaks and expected second peaks of COVID-19 will likely occur right on top of the regular flu season. As the usual non-COVID-19 seasonal infections ramp up, the lifecycle of COVID-19 will press on.
When the coming influenza fall timeline unfolds, no longer can we be oblivious to our social actions and specifically how they affect the infection curve. Ironically, the charge to flatten the curve is not a new concept for COVID-19, instead a known public health tool, now familiar to many more people. Through our behaviors and new awareness, we can reduce the tens of thousands of us that die each year from Influenza.
We can no longer accept an unaddressed spike in influenza cases because we have all of the tools we need: rapid tests, early treatment, and a vaccine. We can actually bend the curve of Influenza to a downward trajectory.
So today, our best efforts are not a rush of actions to prepare for the fall viral season, as we cannot lose sight of the present risk and insidious nature of COVID-19. We can and must learn from this pandemic to apply this knowledge to all viral illnesses each year. Our collective actions will not just prevent the next COVID-19 outbreak, but the same diligence will reduce any viral threat affecting our communities in an ever-recurrent cycle each year.
Ryan G. Bosch, MD, FACP is Socially Determined’s president and co-founder. Dr. Bosch is a board-certified Internal Medicine Physician, Fellow of the American College of Physicians, Veteran (Major in the U.S. Air Force – Physician Corps), public health expert, and flight surgeon. He can be reached at ryan@sociallydetermined.com.